Quantitative risk assessment of accidents with ships

Author: M.D. Emelyanov

Abstract

The article presents correspondence table linking the description of accident consequences with the extent of damage in points for merchant ships. The article provides a statistical law selection method for the frequency of accidents relevant to merchant ships and proposes theoretical distribution for the severity of the consequences. For quantitative risk assessment it is proposed to use conditional metering, representing the actual risk ratio to maximum permissible value. The probability density logarithm distribution of conditional risk metering and its availability calculation formula are obtained in the article as applicable to merchant ships.

Keywords: risk, accident, extent of damage, conditional risk metering, risk availability.

References

1. Emel'yanov M.D. Primenenie uslovnykh riskov dlya otsenki bezopasnosti morskikh sudov [Conditional risks application for safety determination of seagoing vessels]. Transport Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Transport of Russian Federation]. 2009, № 22-23, pp. 40-45.

2. Consolidated text of the Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) for use in the ГМО Rule-making process. (MSC/Circ. 1023 -MERC/Circ. 392). 14.05.2007.

3. Emel'yanov M.D. Bezopasnosf morskogo transporta Rossii [Safety of sea transport of Russian Federation]. Transport Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Transport of Russian Federation]. 2008, № 2(15), pp. 38-43.

4. Emel'yanov M.D. Ocenka riska i kritichnye jelementy morskih sudov [Risk assessment and critical elements of seagoing vessels]. Problemy razvitiya morskogo flota: Sb. nauchnykh trudov ZAO «TsNnMF» [Problems of marine fleet development: proc. of С JSC "CNIIMF"]. St. Petersburg, 2009, pp. 20-41.

About author

Emelyanov Mikhail - PhD, JSC "Central Scientific Research Institute of Marine Fleet", 6, lit. A, Kavalergardskaya st., 191014, St. Petersburg, Russia, tel: +7 (812) 275-89-45, e-mail: emelyanov@cniimf.ru

Issue: 46/47 (2017)





For citation: M.D. Emelyanov. Quantitative risk assessment of accidents with ships. Research Bulletin by Russian Maritime Register of Shipping. Research Bulletin by Russian Maritime Register of Shipping. 2017, No. 46/47, pp. 32-37.

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UDC:  656.61:629.067
Pages:  32-37