Quantitative statistical risk assessment of marine operations

Authors: D.A. Mebrahtu, O.Ya. Timofeev

 

Abstract

 

The proposed article describes the results of statistical analysis of international databases on emergency events at sea. The relevant accident databases of the US Maritime Administration are used as sources of analysis. Accidents are divided into the following types: collisions (bulk), ship collisions, fires (explosions), loss of stability, landing on the ground, exceeding the safe limits of roll or trim, loss or decrease beyond the safe limits of buoyancy. A sample of accidents during marine operations has allowed us to obtain a statistical assessment of the risk of conducting a marine operation, classify accidents and their causes, and assess the partial risk. The insurance risk is taken as a measure of risk (the cost of compensation for the consequences by the insurance company multiplied by the accident probability). The ranking of partial risks has made it possible to determine the areas of most priority for further improvement of the RS Rules for Planning and Executing of Marine Operations.

 

Keywords: marine operations, risks evaluation, insurance, marine accidents.

 

References

1. Marine Accident Reports (National Transportation Safety Board NTSB), https://ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Pages/marine.aspx
2. ISO 17776. Petroleum and natural gas industries — Offshore production installations — Major accident hazard management during the design of new installations, 2016.
3. Marine Casualties and Incidents, https://gisis.imo.org/Public/Default.aspx
4. Marine risk assessment, DNV, Offshore technology report 2001/063
5. Trainer KSRC https://krylov-centre.ru/experimental/base-simulation/
6. Rules for Planning and Execution of Marine Operations the Development and conduct of maritime operations. Russian Maritime Register of shipping, 2010. (In Russian)
7. Waldman N.A., Zharkikh N.V., Malyrenko N.L., Yakovlev D.M. Analiz riska i obespechenie bezopasnostipriprovedenii morskikh operatsiy i rabot na shelfe [Risk analysis and safety assurance during marine operations and offshore operations]. Ed. O.Ya. Timofeev. Publ. by KSRC, 2018.
8. https://www.americanmaritimepartnership.com/u-s-maritime-industry/economic-security/
9. Unit 3. The benefit-cost model https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/fema_bca_visuals_unit-3.pptx

 

About authors:

 

D.A. Mebrahtu - St. Petersburg State Marine Technical University, Houston

O.Ya. Timofeev - DSc, professor, St. Petersburg State Marine Technical University, St. Petersburg

Issue: 64/65 (2021)

For citation: D.A. Mebrahtu, O.Ya. Timofeev. Quantitative statistical risk assessment of marine operations. Research Bulletin by Russian Maritime Register of Shipping. 2021, No. 64/65, pp. 134-144.

UDC 629.123

Pp: 134-144